Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs: Fair trade or global trade war?

the US 2024 presidential race 哈里斯正式赢得民主党总统候选人提名 2024年8月6日 17:26 美国之音 美国副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在亚特兰大的竞选集会上发表讲话。(资料照片：2024年7月30日) 美国副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在亚特兰大的竞选集会上发表讲话。(资料照片：2024年7月30日) 分享 https://www.voachinese.com/a/harris-wins-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-virtual-roll-call/7731558.html 评论 (1) 打印 民主党全国委员会(DNC)星期一(8月5日)晚间表示，根据投票结果，民主党代表已选出副总统副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)作为该党的总统候选人，但仍有程序有待完成。 经过五天的在线投票，哈里斯获得近4600张选票，占参与投票党代表的99%。民主党没有公布“出席”票的确切数字、也没有公布各州“出席”票的分布情况，但公布了哈里斯在各州的得票数据。 哈里斯是唯一符合投票资格的候选人，因为没有其他候选人在截止日期之前符合资格。根据规则，只有符合资格的候选人才能获得选票。 哈里斯在上星期五(8月2日)下午已获得所需的大多数票数，民主党全国委员会主席杰米·哈里森(Jaime Harrison)在当天宣布了此一里程碑，但最终结果在星期一晚上投票结束后才正式确认。 与往年不同的是，民主党代表们不是在党代会现场的喧闹气氛中投票，甚至不是在大会期间投票。他们在芝加哥党代会的两周前，从家中、办公室或度假地点通过电子选票进行投票。 虚拟投票如何进行？ 此次线上投票使用的方法，类似于2020年新冠疫情期间党代会远程投票的统计方式。 根据DNC大会规则委员会在7月底通过的程序，候选人必须在截止日前声明他们有意寻求提名，并提交至少300个党代表连署签名，以符合参与门槛。 根据民主党全国委员会声明，哈里斯提交了3923名代表的签名，占全体代表约84%和签署代表的99%。 谁有资格投票？ 有资格参与虚拟投票的人包括通过州初选和党团会议过程选出的近4000名党代表，以及700多名凭借其担任的公职或党职而自动获得代表席位的人。这些人包括民主党州长、美国参议员和众议员、前总统和民主党全国委员会成员。 这些人被称为超级代表，多年来一直是争论焦点，因为他们有可能影响紧张的提名战结果。不过，历史上超级代表从未支持没有获得大多数支持的候选人。 副总统候选人提名进展如何？ 现在哈里斯是民主党的总统候选人，规则允许她提名副总统候选人，届时大会主席可以宣布其为副总统候选人。 哈里斯即将选定竞选搭档，她在周末会晤了数位可能的候选人们。这星期，她将和她的竞选搭档一同前往七个关键战场州进行造势活动，包括宾夕法尼亚州、亚利桑那州和北卡罗来纳州。 DNC大会将发生什么事？ 民主党将于8月19日至22日在芝加哥举行全国代表大会。全国党代表大会的主要任务是正式选出该政党的总统和副总统候选人，并由候选人发表接受提名的演说。 一般而言，对提名候选人的投票过程是公开进行的，并通过现场唱名表决。今年民主党采用会前预先进行的电子投票，结果在投票结束后公布，而不是像过去的大会唱票那样实时更新。 尽管如此，今年的虚拟投票与数十年来的现场唱票一样，在第一张选票投下之前就已基本确定结果。尽管在总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)退选后曾出现短暂的不确定时期，在拜登宣布支持哈里斯之后的几天里，她迅速巩固了民主党的支持，让投票结果几乎没有悬念。 民主党全国委员会表示，大会将举行象征性的唱名表决仪式，模仿传统大会唱票的方式。哈里斯将在大会最后一天发表演说。 (本文依据了美联社的报道。) Harris set to name running mate as global turmoil rocks an already surreal campaign Stephen Collinson Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN 7 minute read Published 12:00 AM EDT, Tue August 6, 2024 Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, on August 1, 2024. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, on August 1, 2024. Kevin Lamarque/Reuters CNN — The stunning transformation of the 2024 presidential race will reach new heights Tuesday when Vice President Kamala Harris unveils her running mate after a sequence of events that left Republican nominee Donald Trump flailing. Harris is due to join her vice presidential pick at a rally in Philadelphia that will kick off a joint sprint across an electoral map expanded by President Joe Biden’s shelving of his own reelection bid just over two weeks ago. In the final hours of her search after a compressed vetting period, Harris narrowed in on two candidates — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 51, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, 60, sources told CNN, although Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly remained in the running as of Monday afternoon. Shapiro is a rising Democratic star whose popularity in the commonwealth could be an asset to Harris in perhaps the most vital swing state. Walz is an experienced progressive leader whose profile could help shore up the midwestern blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Michigan, that may represent Harris’ best route to the Oval Office. The theatrics will offer the vice president a fresh chance to supercharge her candidacy’s momentum, which has energized a party that had looked headed for defeat in November and tightened the contest into a 50-50 struggle in a polarized country. Her relative youth, at 59, has inverted the generational contrast with Trump, 78, now that the issue of Biden’s age and acuity in a potential second term is moot. While the naming of the Democratic vice presidential pick is the focus of the campaign, new developments Monday — outside a race that has been on a momentous trajectory since Trump escaped an assassination attempt and Biden pulled out — hinted at potential new twists to come before November. Van Jones: This VP choice for Harris would be 'courageous' 02:04 - Source: CNN Economic and Middle East drama loom as Harris makes her pick Harris’ final deliberations took place against a backdrop of fast-developing domestic and global events that reflected the complex political environment she must navigate if the novelty of her sudden elevation wears off. A global stock market plunge, for instance, sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1,000 points Monday, amid rising unemployment and revived fears of a US recession that could further sour voters on an economy that the White House insists is in great shape but that has nevertheless left millions of people feeling deeply insecure. There is no sign that the US economy faces a looming meltdown on the scale of the 2008 crisis that helped lead to the victory of Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain. The banking system appears strong, inflation has ebbed and the US has bounced back more strongly than other developed nations from the Covid-19 pandemic. CNN reporter explains what is causing stocks to plunge 01:54 - Source: CNN Still, in a tight election likely to be decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states, any issue can be decisive. Any economic shocks in the weeks to come could prove treacherous for Harris given she’s tied to the current administration but also lacks the ability to influence factors like whether the Federal Reserve will begin to make long-awaited interest rate cuts. Harris on Monday also had to juggle discussions on her pick with her official duties. She joined Biden in the White House Situation Room amid intense diplomacy as signs point to an Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel that would risk igniting a full-scale regional war that could drag in the United States. News that several US service members were injured in a suspected rocket attack on an air base in Iraq again underscored the many factors that are beyond the vice president’s control that could rock the race in the run-up to November. Multiple US officials told CNN that the US expects Iran to hit back for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran perhaps within a 24-hour time frame — a period that could coincide with the vice president’s plans to name her running mate. The Middle East war has already had a significant impact on the campaign. Israel’s repeated disregard for Biden’s calls to shield civilians in its assault on Hamas in Gaza following the October 7 terror attacks has carved splits in the Democratic coalition, especially in the critical battleground state of Michigan, which is home to many Arab Americans. The war has also loomed over Harris’ search for a running mate since Shapiro, who is Jewish, is being criticized by some on the left for comments condemning the tone of campus protests. While he has been more outspokenly critical about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than Biden has, some progressives have warned against his selection as a running mate. Rep. Jake Auchincloss on Monday criticized a campaign from what he described as the “overly online left” against Shapiro’s possible nomination. “There’s a strong undercurrent of antisemitism to that,” the Massachusetts Democrat told CNN’s Kasie Hunt. Trump seeks opening as he struggles to deal with Harris Trump, who has struggled to adapt his campaign to his new Democratic foe, sought to exploit both evolving crises on Monday in a way that pointed to a potentially more effective attack against Harris than his questioning of her racial identify last week. He blasted the stock sell off as a “Kamala Crash” on social media and warned World War III was beckoning. See how Trump is trying to capitalize on plunging stocks 01:07 - Source: CNN The ex-president’s comments lacked context and were overly alarmist. But perception is often as important as reality in a presidential race. Trump is seeking to tie Harris to what he claims are Biden’s failures as he seeks to foster a sense among Americans that the country and the world are fast spinning out of control. At the very least, the economy and Middle East instability will increase pressure on Harris to do more to counter Trump’s populist economic arguments and to flesh out how she would lead at a time when US global power is more challenged than it’s been in decades. A critical choice The choice of a running mate is the first, most critical decision a party nominee makes. They, after all, are choosing a potential commander in chief who they deem fit to serve as president should the worst happen to them. But while the pick generates huge public interest, fundraising potential and can bolster a presidential nominee’s narrative or compensate for their liabilities, it’s been years since a vice presidential selection has been the decisive factor in winning an election. The most important tactical consideration for Harris, therefore, may be to ensure her choice does nothing to detract from her successful rollout — either in action or by the exposure of past deeds. Any mistakes in vetting her choice could offer Trump and his campaign a chance to pick apart a poorly vetted candidacy and regain some traction. The vice president has just witnessed an object lesson in the perils of running mate politics. Trump and his team have spent two weeks having to defend his pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, after his past reference to Democratic politicians as “childless cat ladies” contributed to the rockiest rollout of any vice presidential pick since Republican Sarah Palin in 2008. The Harris campaign will be seeking a scandal-free rollout and a triumphant swing state tour that keeps Trump off balance for another week and allows her to ride into the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on a political high in two weeks. Tuesday’s events in Philadelphia would have been unthinkable less than three weeks ago when Biden was resisting growing Democratic efforts to push him aside after his disastrous June debate performance in Atlanta. At the time, the 2024 race — which promises sweeping consequences for America’s democracy and future path — was still reeling from the attempt to kill Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania just before he claimed his third-straight GOP nomination. The contest for the White House had previously been shaped by Trump’s multiple legal woes, but the success of his courtroom delaying tactics and assists from conservative judges have pushed off a reckoning for his most serious alleged offenses – including his attempt to steal the 2020 election that he lost in a bid to remain in power. Still, Harris’ strong start appears to have restored the election to a neck-and-neck race, according to recent surveys. In the latest CNN Poll of Polls, for instance, there was no clear leader nationally with Trump at 49% and Harris at 47%. But the vice president’s campaign is so new that it’s too early to judge the full impact of her entry into the race, especially without a critical mass of new swing state data. A successful rollout of her running mate offers the prospect of another few weeks of positive vibes in a transformed race — if outside events don’t intervene. 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