Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs: Fair trade or global trade war?

习拜会前瞻：目标、利害关系和影响 What’s at Stake in the Biden-Xi Meeting 《纽约时报》 2023年11月14日 拜登总统和中国领导人习近平定于周三会晤。两人上一次会晤是去年11月在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行的20国集团会议上。 拜登总统和中国领导人习近平定于周三会晤。两人上一次会晤是去年11月在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行的20国集团会议上。 DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES Trying to set a floor under U.S.-China relations 争取为美中关系设定底线 Nine months after the Chinese spy balloon controversy sent relations between Washington and Beijing to a new low, President Biden and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, will meet this week in San Francisco for face-to-face talks. 九个月前，中国间谍气球事件导致华盛顿和北京的关系降至新低。拜登总统和中国国家主席习近平将于本周在旧金山举行面对面会谈。 The summit won’t end the standoff between the world’s biggest economies. But it’s a sign that Biden and Xi want to maintain ties, despite trade tensions, tit-for-tat sanctions and questions about the future of Taiwan — and business leaders will be hoping for some sign of a thaw. 这次峰会无法结束世界最大经济体之间的僵局。但这表明，尽管贸易关系紧张、制裁针锋相对、对台湾的未来存在很多质疑，拜登和习近平仍希望保持关系，商界领袖希望看到一些解冻的迹象。 Talk is about derisking, not decoupling. Officials have been at pains to emphasize that the U.S. and China are competitors rather than zero-sum rivals. “We have a $700 billion trading relationship with China. The vast majority — 99 percent of that — has nothing to do with export controls,” Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary, told CNN this weekend. Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, has called the countries “economically interdependent” and Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, has warned that economic separation “would have significant global repercussions.” 双方谈论的是去风险，而不是脱钩。美国官员一直在努力强调，美国和中国是竞争对手，而不是零和对手。“我们与中国有7000亿美元的贸易关系。绝大多数——其中99%——与出口管制无关，”商务部长雷蒙多本周末告诉CNN。国家安全顾问沙利文称两国“在经济上相互依存”，财政部长耶伦警告，经济分离“将产生重大的全球影响”。 Xi told a visiting U.S. congressional delegation last month that there were “a thousand reasons to make U.S.-China relations better, and no reason to make them worse.” 习近平上个月对来访的美国国会代表团说，“有一千条理由把中美关系搞好，没有一条理由把中美关系搞坏。” Can they find common ground? The U.S. hopes to resume military communications that were broken off after Representative Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last year. Biden may reassert American support for the “one China” policy that recognizes Beijing as the sole government of China, while warning Xi against interfering in Taiwan’s presidential election next year. And the U.S. will hope for cooperation on tackling climate change and fentanyl trafficking (China is a big source of the drug used in opioid production). 他们能找到共同点吗？美国希望恢复去年佩洛西众议长访台后中断的军事通讯。拜登可能会重申美国支持承认北京为中国唯一政府的“一个中国”政策，同时警告习近平不要干涉台湾明年的总统选举。美国希望双方在应对气候变化和芬太尼走私方面进行合作（中国是阿片类制品生产所用的药物的一大来源国）。 Where does this leave business? Xi will hold a banquet with U.S. executives after the summit, an effort to show that his country is open to foreign businesses. 对商业又有什么影响？习近平将在峰会结束后与美国企业高管举行宴会，以表明中国对外国企业开放的态度。 Many Western companies say it is becoming increasingly difficult to operate in China. But some of Wall Street’s top bosses attended a financial industry summit in Hong Kong last week, suggesting that they aren’t about to leave. Still, there was little talk about the challenge of doing business in China, and in a sign of the sensitivity, reporters weren’t even allowed in the room to ask questions. 许多西方公司表示，在中国开展业务正变得越来越困难。但一些华尔街的大老板上周参加了在香港举行的金融业峰会，这表明他们不打算离开。不过，会议上几乎没有谈到在中国做生意面临的挑战，甚至不允许记者进入会议室提问，这也显示出会议的敏感性。 But that might not matter for Xi. Images of the Chinese leader breaking bread with American C.E.O.s may be valuable enough for his audience at home. 但这对习近平来说可能无关紧要。这位中国领导人与美国首席执行官们共进晚餐的画面，对他的国内受众来说可能已经足够有价值。 本文节译自《交易录》(DealBook)新闻简报。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 习近平与拜登本周会晤，寻求稳定中美关系 Biden and Xi to Seek to Stabilize Relations in California Meeting KATIE ROGERS, 艾莎 2023年11月13日 美国总统拜登和中国国家主席习近平去年在印度尼西亚。他们计划本周在旧金山出席亚太经合组织峰会时再次见面。 美国总统拜登和中国国家主席习近平去年在印度尼西亚。他们计划本周在旧金山出席亚太经合组织峰会时再次见面。 DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES President Biden and President Xi Jinping of China plan to meet in California on Wednesday for a discussion that Mr. Biden’s advisers say is meant to stabilize relations even as it features a host of topics on which the two fiercely competitive countries disagree. 美国总统拜登和中国国家主席习近平计划于本周三在加利福尼亚州见面，拜登的顾问们表示，会谈旨在稳定关系，尽管这两个激烈竞争的国家在许多议题上存在分歧。 The Biden administration, which formally announced the meeting on Friday morning, said the two leaders would have the highly choreographed discussion as they attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, known as APEC. 拜登政府上周五上午正式宣布了这次会晤，称两国领导人将在出席于旧金山举行的亚太经合组织峰会（简称APEC）期间，进行精心安排的讨论。 In a call with reporters on Thursday, two senior advisers to Mr. Biden said the meeting was intended to be wide-ranging, with Mr. Biden prepared to bring up issues including Taiwan, election interference, the war in Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas. 拜登的两名高级顾问上周四在与记者通电话时表示，这次会晤计划的议题范围广泛，拜登准备谈论的问题包括台湾、干扰选举、俄乌战争，以及以色列与哈马斯的战争。 Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by China, is set to hold elections early next year, and one of the advisers said Mr. Biden would seek to “present” Mr. Xi with “clarity” — meaning that the United States expects Beijing not to interfere and is concerned that it might. Mr. Biden is also expected to warn Mr. Xi against interfering in U.S. elections. 中国声称拥有主权的自治岛屿台湾将于明年初举行选举，上述两名顾问之一说，拜登将寻求“明确”向习近平“表示”，美国期望中国政府不干涉台湾选举，且担心中国可能会干涉。预计拜登也将警告习近平不要干预美国选举。 The advisers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the meeting, did not provide specifics on its location, citing security concerns. 这两名顾问扼要介绍此次会晤的前提是不透露姓名，出于安全考虑，他们也没有提供会晤地点的具体信息。 The meeting will take place almost a year to the day after Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi met during the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, another rigidly planned diplomatic affair that took place amid fears over rising Chinese aggression toward Taiwan and steep competition between Washington and Beijing over military and technology advances. The two have not spoken since, and the intervening year has severely tested relations. 距本次会晤近一年前，拜登和习近平曾在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行的20国集团峰会期间见面。那次同样经过严密安排的外交活动举行时，中国对台湾采取日益加剧的挑衅行动引发了担忧，美国与中国就军事和技术进展在进行激烈竞争。在那之后的一年里，两人再也没有通过话，两国关系也受到了严峻考验。 A Chinese spy balloon that crossed over the United States before an American fighter jet downed it off the coast of South Carolina set off a diplomatic crisis in February. And more recently, tensions have flared over matters such as Chinese espionage and U.S. restrictions on technology exports to China. 今年2月，一个中国间谍气球飞越美国上空后，被美国战斗机在南卡罗来纳州沿海击落，引发了一场外交危机。两国紧张关系加剧更近的原因包括中国的间谍活动，以及美国限制对华技术出口等问题。 Strains remain and will be addressed, Mr. Biden’s advisers say, but this year, Chinese and American officials have also emphasized the importance of strengthening ties between the world’s two largest economies. The Biden administration has already sent several top officials — including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo — to China this year to try to make clear that while the United States wants to protect national security, it does not seek to sever economic ties. 拜登的顾问表示，紧张关系依然存在，这是将要讨论的问题，但中国和美国的官员们今年也强调了加强世界两个最大经济体之间关系的重要性。拜登政府今年派出几名高级官员访华，包括国务卿布林肯、财政部长耶伦和商务部长雷蒙多，试图表明美国希望保护国家安全，但并不寻求切断经济联系。 Ms. Yellen echoed that position on Friday, after two days of meetings with Vice Premier He Lifeng in San Francisco, where both were to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Such a decoupling, she said, “would be damaging to both the U.S. and China and destabilizing for the world.” She added that she and Mr. Lifeng had agreed that their countries should strive for a healthy economic relationship. 耶伦在旧金山与中国副总理何立峰举行了两天的会晤（两人都将出席亚太经合组织峰会），在上周五重申了这一立场。耶伦说，经济脱钩“对美国和中国都有害，并且破坏世界稳定”。她还说，她和何立峰一致认为，美中两国应该力求建立健康的经济关系。 On Thursday, China’s ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, said in video remarks to a forum in Hong Kong that China wanted reassurances that “the U.S. does not seek to change China’s system, does not seek a new Cold War, does not support Taiwan independence and has no intention to seek decoupling from China.” 上周四，中国驻美国大使谢锋在香港的一个论坛上发表视频讲话时表示，中国希望得到保证——“美国不寻求改变中国的制度，不寻求新冷战，不支持台湾独立，不想寻求与中国脱钩”。 “Sino-U.S. relations are still facing severe challenges, and there is still a long way to go to stabilize and improve relations,” Mr. Xie said at the event, the Hong Kong Forum on U.S.-China Relations. “中美关系仍面临着严峻挑战，稳定和改善关系还有很长的路要走，”谢锋在香港中美论坛上说。 Experts cautioned against expecting the meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi to produce any breakthroughs on thorny issues such as China’s military aggression in Taiwan, U.S. limits on the sales of advanced semiconductors to China or American concerns about China’s human rights record. 专家们警告，不要指望拜登与习近平的见面能在一些棘手问题上取得突破，比如中国对台湾的军事挑衅、美国限制对华出售先进半导体，或美国对中国人权记录的担忧等。 “There won’t be anything that will move the relationship in a different direction,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. “不会发生能让两国关系朝着另一个方向发展的任何事情，”斯坦福大学弗里曼·斯波利国际问题研究所研究员梅惠琳(Oriana Skylar Mastro)说。 Outside of the meeting with Mr. Biden, Mr. Xi is expected to focus much of his time in California on showing leaders of American industry that his country is open for business. After he and Mr. Biden meet, Mr. Xi is expected to speak to top American business executives at a $2,000-a-plate dinner, part of a “C.E.O. Summit” taking place on the sidelines of the main event. 除了与拜登会面外，预计习近平在加州的大部分时间将用于向美国工业领袖展示中国对商业的开放态度。与拜登会面后，预计习近平将出席每个席位售价2000美元的晚宴，对美国企业高管们发表讲话，该晚宴是在亚太经合组织峰会主要活动的间隙举行的“CEO峰会”的一部分。 Aside from issues of trade and competition, Mr. Biden is expected to broach the war in Gaza with Mr. Xi, officials said on Thursday. Beijing has a warm trade and diplomatic relationship with Iran, a country that helps support Hamas and other militant groups in the Middle East, and Mr. Biden is expected to stress to Mr. Xi that the United States will respond to any expansion of the war caused by Iran. 上述官员上周四还告诉记者，除了贸易和竞争问题外，预计拜登也将与习近平讨论加沙战争问题。中国与伊朗有良好的贸易和外交关系，伊朗帮助支持哈马斯和中东其他激进组织，预计拜登将向习近平强调，美国将对伊朗造成的任何战争扩大做出反应。 Mr. Biden will also be monitoring developments in Washington as he navigates the meeting with Mr. Xi and engages with other leaders at APEC, a group of 21 countries that surround the Pacific Ocean. While Mr. Biden is on the West Coast, the federal government is set to inch closer to a shutdown. 在与习近平会面并与出席亚太经合组织（由环绕太平洋的21个国家组成）峰会的其他领导人进行接触同时，拜登还将密切关注华盛顿的事态发展。拜登在西海岸期间，美国联邦政府正逐步接近停摆。 House Republicans, so far, have been unable to coalesce around proposals to fund the government, and the current stopgap spending measure expires on Nov. 17. White House officials have suggested that the president may cut his trip short if a shutdown looks likely, but on Thursday, they publicly downplayed that idea. 到目前为止，关于为政府运作提供资金的提案，众议院的共和党人一直未能达成一致，目前的临时支出措施将于11月17日终止。白宫官员已暗示，如果政府看来有可能停摆，拜登也许会缩短行程，但上周四，他们公开淡化了这个说法。 Asked about the possibility of tumult in Washington cutting into Mr. Biden’s trip, John F. Kirby, a White House spokesman, told reporters, “Well, my goodness, we haven’t even loaded luggage on the plane.” 当被问及华盛顿的混乱是否会影响拜登的行程时，白宫发言人约翰·柯比对记者说，“天哪，我们的行李还没装上飞机呢。” Ana Swanson及Peter Baker对本文有报道贡献。 Katie Rogers是一名白宫记者，负责报道一系列议题，包括外交政策、国内政策和拜登家族。她的新书《美国女人》讲述了白宫第一夫人的故事，将于 2024年2月出版。她于2014年加入时报。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是时报上海分社社长。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 习近平如何看待美国、世界和中美竞争 Behind Public Assurances, Xi Jinping Spread Grim Views on U.S. 储百亮 2023年11月14日 中国领导人习近平在白宫与美国总统奥巴马一起举行记者会，摄于2015年。 中国领导人习近平在白宫与美国总统奥巴马一起举行记者会，摄于2015年。 GARY CAMERON/REUTERS When President Xi Jinping of China made his first state visit to the United States in 2015, he wrapped his demands for respect in reassurances. 2015年，中国国家主席习近平首次对美国进行国事访问时，曾要求美国保证给予中国尊重。 He courted tech executives, while defending China’s internet controls. He denied that China was militarizing the disputed South China Sea, while asserting its maritime claims there. He spoke hopefully of a “new model” for great power relations, in which Beijing and Washington would coexist peacefully as equals. 他试图取悦科技高管们，同时为中国对互联网的控制做辩护。他否认中国正在将有主权争议的南中国海军事化，同时坚称中国在那里拥有海事主权。他对构建“新型大国关系”充满希望，在这种关系下，中美将以平等的地位和平共处。 But back in China, in meetings with the military, Mr. Xi was warning in strikingly stark terms that intensifying competition between a rising China and a long-dominant United States was all but unavoidable, and that the People’s Liberation Army should be prepared for a potential conflict. 但在回国后主持军队会议时，习近平却以截然不同的严厉措辞发出警告，称正在崛起的中国与长期占主导地位的美国的竞争加剧几乎不可避免，中国人民解放军应该为可能的冲突做好准备。 In Mr. Xi’s telling, China sought to rise peacefully, but Western powers would not accept the idea that a Communist-led China was catching up and could someday overtake them in global primacy. The West would never stop trying to derail China’s ascent and topple its Communist Party, he said in speeches to the military that are largely unreported by the media. 按照习近平的说法，尽管中国寻求和平崛起，但西方列强不会接受共产党领导的中国正在追赶、并在有朝一日取代它们全球霸主地位的想法。他在向军队发表讲话时说，西方永远不会停止试图阻挠中国的崛起和推翻中共，但这些讲话基本上没有见诸媒体。 “Beyond doubt, our country’s growing strength is the most important factor driving a profound readjustment of the international order,” he told top commanders in November 2015, two months after his visit to the United States. “Some Western countries absolutely never want to see a socialist China grow strong under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.” “毫无疑问，我国发展壮大是推动国际格局和国际体系深刻调整最重要的一个因素，”他在访美两个月后，也就是2015年11月对解放军高级指挥官发表讲话时说。“一些西方国家是绝对不愿意看到中国共产党领导的社会主义中国发展壮大的。” 习近平与奥巴马在白宫玫瑰园，摄于2015年。 习近平与奥巴马在白宫玫瑰园，摄于2015年。 DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES Despite his assurances to President Obama not to militarize the South China Sea, Mr. Xi told his senior commanders in February 2016 that China must bolster its presence there, saying: “We’ve seized the opportunity, eliminated intervention and sped up construction on South China Sea islands and shoals, achieving a historic breakthrough in maritime strategy and defending maritime rights.” (In the years that followed, China quickly expanded its military infrastructure in the area.) 虽然习近平曾向美国总统奥巴马保证不会将南中国海军事化，但他在2016年2月对解放军高级指挥官们说，中国必须加强在南中国海的存在，他说：“我们抓住时机、排除干扰，加快推进南海岛礁建设，取得了经略海洋、维护海权的历史性突破。”（中国在接下来的几年里迅速扩大了在那里的军事基础设施。） Mr. Xi’s remarks are among collections of speeches that Mr. Xi made to the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party officials, published by the military for internal study by senior officers, and seen and corroborated by The New York Times. The volumes, “Xi Jinping’s Selected Major Statements on National Defense and Military Development,” cover his initial years in power, from 2012 to February 2016. 习近平对中国人民解放军和中共官员发表的这些讲话经整理成集后由军方出版印发给高级军官供内部学习之用。《纽约时报》看到并核实了这些讲话。《习近平关于国防和军队建设重要论述选编》包括了他上台初期的2012年到2016年2月发表的讲话。 The speeches offer a new, unvarnished view into the leader at the center of a superpower rivalry that is shaping the 21st century. They show how at times he has voiced an almost fatalistic conviction — even before Beijing’s ties with Washington took a steep dive later in the Trump administration — that China’s rise would prompt a backlash from Western rivals seeking to maintain their dominance. 这些讲话提供了一个未经修饰的新视角来了解这名处于超级大国竞争中心的领导人，而这场竞争正在影响着21世纪的进程。这些讲话表明，甚至在中美关系在后来的特朗普政府时期急剧下降之前，习近平有时就已在表达一种近乎宿命论的坚定信念，那就是，中国的崛起必将引起寻求维持主导地位的西方竞争对手的强烈反对。 “The faster we develop, the bigger the external shock will be, and the greater the strategic blowback,” Mr. Xi told Chinese Air Force officers in 2014. “我们发展得越快，对外部的影响冲击就越大，受到的战略反弹力就越强，”习近平2014年对中国空军军官们说。 In Mr. Xi’s worldview, the West has sought to subvert the Chinese Communist Party’s power at home and contain the country’s influence abroad. The Communist Party had to respond to these threats with iron-fisted rule and an ever-stronger People’s Liberation Army. 在习近平的世界观中，西方寻求颠覆中共在国内的权力，遏制中国在国外的影响力。中共必须用铁腕统治和日益强大的人民解放军来应对这些威胁。 中国在南沙群岛修建的人工岛，岛上有机场和各种建筑物，摄于2022年。中国长期以来一直力求加强本国在该海域的存在。 中国在南沙群岛修建的人工岛，岛上有机场和各种建筑物，摄于2022年。中国长期以来一直力求加强本国在该海域的存在。 EZRA ACAYAN/GETTY IMAGES As Mr. Xi prepares to meet with President Biden in California this week, the question of how the two powers will manage their rivalry hangs over the relationship. 在习近平准备本周在加州与拜登总统会面之际，这两个大国将如何处理之间的竞争，仍是让人们对双方关系忧心忡忡的问题。 Mr. Xi has been trying to stabilize relations with Washington, apparently pressed by China’s economic troubles and a desire to reduce Beijing’s diplomatic isolation. “We have a thousand reasons to grow the relationship between China and the United States, and none at all to ruin it,” Mr. Xi told American lawmakers in Beijing recently. 习近平已在试图稳定与华盛顿的关系，这似乎是受中国经济困境的压力，以及希望减少中国在外交上遭受孤立愿望的影响。“我们有一千条理由把中美关系搞好，没有一条理由把中美关系搞坏，”习近平最近在北京对到访的美国立法者说。 But with mutual distrust running deep, any easing of antagonism between the two sides could be tenuous. 但由于双方的相互怀疑根深蒂固，两国对立情绪的任何缓和可能都很脆弱。 Mr. Xi underscored that his judgment of the challenge posed by the United States remains unchanged, saying with rare public bluntness in March: “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-around containment, encirclement and suppression of China.” 习近平强调，他对美国带来的挑战的判断没有改变，他曾在今年3月罕见地公开表示：“以美国为首的西方国家对我实施了全方位的遏制、围堵、打压。” Doubts About American Might 对美国实力的怀疑 Mr. Xi’s views of the world and the United States bear the imprint of China’s turbulent years when he was preparing to assume power. China had grown quickly, but the reforms that boosted that growth had slowed, and official corruption was rampant. The security state had expanded, but so had protest and dissent. 习近平的世界观以及他对美国的看法带有他当年为掌权做准备的那段动荡时期的印记。虽然中国经济在那段时期增长迅速，但促进经济增长的改革步伐已放缓，官员腐败猖獗。虽然国家扩大了安全措施，但抗议和异见也在扩大。 As Mr. Xi emerged as the country’s leader-in-waiting in 2007, some diplomats, experts and well-connected Communist Party veterans predicted that he would be a pragmatist who might restart China’s efforts toward economic liberalization. Some even saw in him a chance for political change after a long period of stagnation. 随着习近平将成为中国下任领导人的迹象在2007年变得清晰起来，一些外交官、专家和党内关系广泛的中共元老们曾预测，他会是一名实用主义者，可能会重启中国的经济自由化进程。有些人甚至在他身上看到了长期停滞的政治改革的机会。 担任上海市委书记时的习近平，摄于2007年。 担任上海市委书记时的习近平，摄于2007年。 NG HAN GUAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS They cited Mr. Xi’s pedigree as the son of a revolutionary leader who had helped oversee China’s economic overhaul in the 1980s and the decades Mr. Xi had spent as an official in the commercial coastal provinces of eastern China, including 17 years in Fujian, where he courted investors from neighboring Taiwan. Li Rui, a retired senior official who had once served as Mao Zedong’s aide, recorded in his diary a conversation in 2007 about the relatively unknown Mr. Xi. 他们指出，习近平是参加过中国革命的领导人的儿子，那名领导人曾在20世纪80年代帮助指导中国的经济改革。他们还指出，习近平曾在中国东南沿海的商贸省份担任过几十年的官员，包括在福建省工作了17年，在那里，他曾试图吸引与福建一海之隔的台湾的投资者。曾担任毛泽东秘书工作的退休高级官员李锐在日记中记下了2007年他与别人谈起当时还相对无名的习近平的一段对话。 “I asked what Xi Jinping was like, and the answer was four words: ‘governing by doing nothing,’” Mr. Li wrote. “That would be good,” Mr. Li added, “letting everyone play to their strengths with less meddling.” (Mr. Li died in 2019; his diaries and correspondences are held by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.) “问习近平如何，答四个字：‘无为而治’，”李锐写道。“这就不错，”李锐补充道，“发挥大家的长处，少干涉。”（李锐已于2019年去世；他的日记和信件保存在斯坦福大学的胡佛研究所。） But Mr. Xi’s upbringing and family background left a more complex imprint than many assumed: He was, above all, proud of the party and the Communist revolution. And skepticism about American might and wariness about its intentions toward China were becoming more mainstream in Beijing as Mr. Xi prepared to take the reins of power. 但习近平的成长经历和家庭背景给他留下的印记比许多人想象的更复杂：最重要的是，他对中共和共产主义革命感到自豪。随着习近平为掌权做准备，中国政府当中对美国实力的怀疑、警惕美国对华意图的思想变得越来越主流。 The global financial crisis of 2007-08 had shattered official Chinese assumptions that Washington’s economic policymakers were competent, even if Beijing disagreed with them. Chinese officials quizzed American officials like Hank Paulson, then the Treasury secretary, about their mishandling of the situation. For many in Beijing, the lessons extended beyond the financial system. 2007-08年的全球金融危机打破了中国官员对美国经济政策制定者能力的假设，尽管中国官员持有与他们不同的意见。中国官员曾问过时任美国财政部长保尔森等美国官员他们处理不当的问题。对中国政府里的许多人来说，那次危机的教训不仅限于金融体系。 在福建省会福州工作时，习近平骑自行车带女儿出行。照片由中国国家通讯社提供，未注明日期。 在福建省会福州工作时，习近平骑自行车带女儿出行。照片由中国国家通讯社提供，未注明日期。 XINHUA, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS “It was a defining moment,” said Desmond Shum, a businessman whose memoir, Red Roulette, describes those years, when he mingled with China’s political elite. “After that point, the entire Western model was questioned much more. There was also this growing belief that the world would need China to lead the way out of the mess.” “那是一个决定性的时刻，”商人沈栋说，他的回忆录《红色轮盘》讲述了他在那些年里与中国政治精英交往的经历。“那个时刻之后，人们对整个西方模式有了更多的怀疑，越来越相信世界需要中国领导，才能走出困境。” Specter of ‘Color Revolution’ “颜色革命”的幽灵 As Mr. Xi prepared to become China’s leader, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was emerging as a model of an authoritarian strongman pushing back against American pre-eminence. 就在习近平准备成为中国领导人时，俄罗斯总统普京以反对美国霸主地位的独裁铁腕人物的榜样出现了。 “These two men have a shared mental map of the world — not perfectly the same, but shared,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Both want to return their countries to a lost inheritance of greatness; both want to reclaim key territories; both have a shared sense of the trauma of the collapse of the Soviet Union.” “这两个男人对世界有一种共同的思维——虽然不完全一样，但有相同之处，”战略与国际研究中心中国问题专家白明(Jude Blanchette)说。“他们都想把失去的伟大遗产归还给自己的国家；他们都想收复关键领土；他们对苏联的解体有共同的创伤感。” In particular, Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, who met in 2010, shared a suspicion that the United States was bent on destabilizing its rivals by instigating insurrection in the name of democracy. Mr. Xi and other Chinese leaders adopted Mr. Putin’s conception of “color revolutions” to describe such unrest. 具体来说，2010年相识的习近平和普京都怀疑，美国决心以民主为名在对手国家煽动叛乱、破坏稳定。习近平和其他中国领导人采用了普京的“颜色革命”概念来描述这种骚乱。 2010年，普京在莫斯科与习近平会面。专家们说，这两名领导人有与他们各自国家的伟大复兴有关的共同世界观。 2010年，普京在莫斯科与习近平会面。专家们说，这两名领导人有与他们各自国家的伟大复兴有关的共同世界观。 MISHA JAPARIDZE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES In the mid-2000s, official Chinese fears of an eruption of anti-party protests did not seem so far-fetched. Flagrant corruption and official scandals had incensed many people. The internet opened up new channels for amplifying grievances. 本世纪前十年的中期，中国官方对爆发反党抗议活动的担忧似乎不无道理。骇人听闻的腐败和官员丑闻已激怒了许多人。互联网为放大这些不满提供了新渠道。 Chinese Communist Party leaders have long sought to mobilize support by citing a miasma of external threats. Warnings of an American conspiracy to overthrow the party and transform China into a capitalist country by “peaceful evolution” go back to the Mao era. But Mr. Xi has evoked those warnings with distinct urgency. 中共领导人长期以来一直试图用各种各样的外部威胁论来动员国内的支持。有关美国阴谋推翻中共、通过“和平演变”把中国变成资本主义国家的警告可追溯到毛泽东时代。但习近平发出这些警告是带着明显紧迫感的。 “He’s somebody who spent years of his life lacking security and, as he said later, learning from his father about the fickleness of human relationships and power,” said Joseph Torigian, a research fellow at the Hoover History Lab at Stanford University who has examined Mr. Xi’s speeches to the military. “Now he becomes the named successor, and he’s looking around the world and seeing ‘color revolutions’ and United States meddling and, for him, it’s this idea that, ultimately, power is the last guarantor of security and strength.” “他是在人生很多年里缺乏安全感的那种人，而且正如他后来说的，他从父亲那里学到了人际关系和权力的变化无常，”斯坦福大学胡佛历史实验室研究员唐志学(Joseph Torigian)说道，他读了习近平对军队的讲话。“现在他成了指定继任者，他观察世界时看到的是‘颜色革命’和美国的干预，对他来说，一个最终想法是，权力是安全和力量的最后保证。” Mr. Xi saw lessons in the “Arab Spring” uprisings that had toppled corrupt authoritarian leaders across the Middle East. The overthrow of Egypt’s leader, Hosni Mubarak, in 2011, left a deep impression on Chinese leaders, who saw parallels with the 1989 pro-democracy protests at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, said John K. Culver, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer who followed Mr. Xi’s rise. 习近平从“阿拉伯之春”中汲取了教训，在中东许多地方，腐败的独裁领导人为此下台。埃及领导人穆巴拉克2011年的倒台给中国领导人们留下了深刻的印象，他们认为那与1989年的北京天安门广场民主抗议活动有相似之处，曾任中央情报局官员的约翰·K·卡尔弗说道，他曾密切关注习近平的职业生涯。 穆巴拉克2011年宣布辞去埃及总统职务后，开罗民众举行了庆祝活动。 穆巴拉克2011年宣布辞去埃及总统职务后，开罗民众举行了庆祝活动。 MOISES SAMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES “What really scared them was Egypt, because Hosni Mubarak rose as an officer in the Egyptian military, and yet the military turned on him,” Mr. Culver said. Chinese leaders, he added, “saw that and asked themselves: ‘If Tiananmen Square happened today, would the army again save the party?’” “真正让他们害怕的是埃及，因为穆巴拉克是从埃及军队一路升上来的，但军队却对他翻了脸，”卡尔弗说。他还表示，中国领导人们“看到了这个后自问道：‘如果天安门广场的抗议发生在今天，军队会再次救中共吗？’” Xi’s Military Renovation 习近平的军队改革 Within weeks of taking power in late 2012, Mr. Xi met with officials and sounded a warning: The collapse of the Soviet Union, he said, was a cautionary tale for China. It had fallen, he lamented, because its military had lost its nerve. He warned officials that China could suffer the same fate unless the party recovered its ideological backbone. 2012年底上台后没几周，习近平就在与官员们见面时发出警告。他说，苏联的解体对中国来说是个警示故事。他哀叹道，苏联之所以解体，是因为苏联的军队失去了勇气。习近平警告官员们，中国可能会遭受同样的命运，除非中共找回自己的意识形态支柱。 Months later, he issued an internal edict to roll back the influence of what he called Western ideas, such as the concept of universal human rights and the rule of law, in universities and the news media. 几个月后，他在一份内部文件中下令，在大学和新闻媒体中抵制他所谓的西方思想，如普世价值、人权、法治等概念。 From his first presidential summit with Mr. Obama in 2013, Mr. Xi had shown himself to be a “much more assertive and confident leader” than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, setting aside his talking points to press his views, according to Ben Rhodes, a former deputy national security adviser to Mr. Obama. 自从2013年与奥巴马举行首次元首峰会起，习近平就把自己表现为比前任胡锦涛“更坚定自信的领导人”，为强调自己的观点，他会不顾谈话要点，曾在奥巴马手下担任副国家安全顾问的本·罗兹说。 “This was a guy who was not just the frontman of a party, he was his own man,” Mr. Rhodes said in an email. “他不仅仅是一个政党的头面人物，他是个独立自主的人，”罗兹在电子邮件中写道。 Mr. Xi, who leads the military as chairman of the Central Military Commission, reserved some of his bluntest warnings about the West for his commanders. 身为中共中央军委主席的习近平也是军队领导人，他的一些对西方最直截了当的警告是说给军队的指挥官们听的。 习近平在香港的一个军营检阅中国人民解放军，摄于2017年。 习近平在香港的一个军营检阅中国人民解放军，摄于2017年。 DALE DE LA REY/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES “The ‘laws of the jungle’ of international competition have not changed,” he told military delegates to China’s national legislature in 2014. He pointed to the growing presence of American jets, ships and aircraft carriers in the Asia-Pacific region as evidence that the United States was seeking to contain China. “国际竞争的‘丛林法则’并没有改变，”习近平2014年对出席人大会议的军队代表们说。他指出，美国的飞机、舰艇和航空母舰在亚太地区的频繁出现证明，美国正在寻求遏制中国。 He also said that the pro-Western protests that were then sweeping across Ukraine were a warning for Beijing. “Some Western countries are fanning the flames there and secretly scheming to achieve their geopolitical goals there,” he said. “We must take heed of this lesson.” 他还说，当时席卷了乌克兰的亲西方抗议活动是对中国政府的警告。“一些西方国家为了实现其地缘战略目标在那里煽风点火、密谋策划，”他说。“我们要引为镜鉴。” To prepare for the threats Mr. Xi saw ahead, he said, China needed to urgently overhaul its military. From late 2015, he initiated a sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army, seeking to make it an integrated force capable of extending Chinese power abroad, especially through air, sea and space forces. His warnings about the West helped underscore the urgency of those changes. 习近平说，为了应对他预见到的威胁，中国迫切需要进行军队改革。从2015年底起，他开始对中国人民解放军进行大规模重组，力求将其打造成一支能够将中国的力量扩展到海外，尤其是能在空中、海上和太空投射力量的综合部队。他对西方的警告帮助强调了这些改革的紧迫性。 “Speeches to people within the system are attempts to mobilize,” said Mr. Blanchette, the researcher in Washington. “You don’t do that by just saying that the world is getting a little bit complicated; you need a narrative that is going to allow you to smash vested interests to achieve change.” “体制内的讲话是为了把人们动员起来，”在华盛顿工作的研究员白明说。“要动员的话，就不能只是说世界正在变得有点复杂；需要一个能打破既得利益的叙事，才能实现改革。” 参加中国2018年在西太平洋举行军事演习的“辽宁号”航空母舰（中）。 参加中国2018年在西太平洋举行军事演习的“辽宁号”航空母舰（中）。 REUTERS Mr. Xi warned that the People’s Liberation Army was still dangerously backward, and could fall behind if it did not seek to innovate, particularly in upgrading its weaponry and command organization. In these speeches, Mr. Xi did not say that war was unavoidable. But he made clear that without a formidable military, China would not be able to assert its will. 习近平警告称，人民解放军仍危险地落后于时代，如果不寻求创新，尤其是武器装备和指挥机构升级上的创新，就会更落后。虽然在这些讲话中，习近平没有说战争不可避免。但他明确表示，没有一支强大的军队，中国就不能坚持自己的意愿。 “In international contestation, political operations are very important, but ultimately it comes down to whether you have strength and whether you can use that strength,” he told the commanders on the Central Military Commission in November 2015. “Relying on a silver tongue won’t work.” “在国际较量中，政治运筹很重要，但说到底还是要看有没有实力，会不会用实力，”他2015年11月对中央军委指挥官们说。“光靠三寸不烂之舌是不行的。” Amy Chang Chien自台北对本文有报道贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道 习近平与拜登会晤寻求稳定中美关系 2023年11月13日 习近平与拜登会晤寻求稳定中美关系 习近平展示改写全球秩序雄心 2023年10月19日 习近平展示改写全球秩序雄心 中国经济困境给习近平带来挑战 2023年9月7日 中国经济困境给习近平带来挑战 经济VS国家安全：习近平的两难挑战 2023年5月15日 经济VS国家安全：习近平的两难挑战 中俄友谊凸显北京对西方“遏制”的恐惧 2023年3月23日 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道 习近平访美将向美国商界领袖致辞 2023年11月9日 习近平访美将向美国商界领袖致辞 习近平在北京会见加州州长纽森 2023年10月26日 习近平在北京会见加州州长纽森 习近平展示改写全球秩序雄心 2023年10月19日 习近平展示改写全球秩序雄心 习近平将缺席G20峰会，这意味着什么 2023年9月5日 相关报道 习近平如何看待美国、世界和中美竞争 2023年11月14日 习近平如何看待美国、世界和中美竞争 习近平与拜登会晤寻求稳定中美关系 2023年11月13日